The delta variant of Covid-19 has made it more difficult to predict the evolution of the pandemic because of the gradual reduction in immunity provided by vaccines, British scientist Neil Ferguson said today.
"It's harder to predict the epidemic now than it was at the beginning because of the level of immunity in the population," he admitted at a seminar organized by the Institute for Government, a center for the study of public policy and administration.
Ferguson, one of the most influential scientists advising the British government, said that "most epidemiologists expect the number of cases to increase, but they don't know when it will peak".
"There is a lot of uncertainty about immunity levels [because] the effectiveness of vaccines has been slightly compromised by the delta variant," he explained.
Ferguson stressed that two doses of vaccines against Covid-19 offer a high degree of protection against hospitalization and death, but the high transmissibility of the delta variant has aggravated the problem of reduced immunity guaranteed by the vaccines.
“There is more and more data showing that the vaccine's effectiveness fades over time, even without the [delta variant]. This was already expected», admitted the scientist from the Imperial College London University.
The evolution of the pandemic will also depend on people's behavior and rates of social contact, he said, mentioning the exponential increase in cases in late June and early July in the UK related to Euro2020 and the performance of the English team, a finalist defeated by Italy.
The UK recorded 68 deaths and 37.011 new cases on Sunday, having so far accumulated 133.229 deaths since March 2020.
By Sunday, almost 90% of the population over 16 years old had been vaccinated with one dose and 80% received both doses.
Comments