The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant fall in gross birth rates, with particularly steep declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9,1%), Spain (-8,4%) and Portugal (-6,6%) .
This is the main conclusion of a study conducted by the Bocconi University of Italy and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, using numerical models and analyzing data from 22 countries.
Pandemics are a key driver of changes in human populations, affecting both mortality and birth rates.
The biggest pandemic of the last century, the so-called Spanish flu (1918-1919), caused birth rates in the United States to drop from 23 per 1.000 population in 1918 to 20 per 1.000 in 1919 (-13%).
Comparable effects were observed in countries such as the UK, India, Japan and Norway.
Preliminary data now suggest that the covid-19 pandemic has lowered the birth rate in high-income countries.
To better assess the effect of this disease, the study authors collected monthly data from January 2016 to March this year from a total of 22 high-income countries.
After several comparative calculations, scientists used models to account for seasonality and long-term trends.
By applying and refining the models, the data show that the pandemic was accompanied by a significant decline in gross birth rates beyond what was predicted by past trends in seven of the 22 countries considered.
Thus, gross birth rates fell by 8,5% in Hungary, 9,1% in Italy, 8,4% in Spain and 6,6% in Portugal.
Furthermore, Belgium, Austria and Singapore also showed a significant decline in gross birth rates, according to this analysis.
However, the authors stress that the available data only provide information about the first wave and therefore "only give an idea of the global decline during the pandemic".
The data provide information on various phases of the first wave and indicate that in some countries, such as France and Spain, a recovery in birth rates was observed in March 2021 compared to June 2020.
For these countries, the month of June 2020 marked the point at which the first wave of the pandemic diminished, thus possibly reflecting a reversal.
According to the authors, the results reveal the impact of the pandemic on population dynamics and may have political implications for childcare, housing and the labor market.
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