The main protagonists of the international scene, on the eve of the New Year, are facing the imminence of taking geostrategic decisions without fully knowing the scope and repercussions of these decisions. Deep down, we may even be on the verge of witnessing the collapse of the main institutions that made the international order after World War II and on the brink of a new balance of powers.
However, at the same time, a new world emerges, in which, in the words of Hannah Arendt, “the ideal subject of the totalitarian regime is neither the convinced Nazi nor the militant communist, but the man for whom there is no difference between fact and fiction. , neither between true and false”. A few decades after these words, cyberculture gave it the name of post-truth. From now on, anything can happen. It is the time of the imponderable, of the black swans.
I. The World, the return to areas of influence and the balance of power
We are progressively returning to the doctrine of areas of influence and balance of powers, while we are seeking to legitimize these options within the framework of a soft and defensive multilateralism, which is also increasingly fragile and vulnerable.
Donald Trump's election in the US and the unknowns surrounding his foreign policy, Russia's policy of confrontation with a view to regaining its vital space, China's imperial affirmation as a great power of the XNUMXst century, the Greater Middle East and the imminence of far-reaching geostrategic decisions by regional powers, the multiplication of failed states, proxy wars and refugees, international terrorism, in addition to the high political risk facing the European Union at the moment, as a result of an unprecedented wave of populism, here is an explosive cocktail that has not been seen for a long time, at the very moment when general elections are being held in the main founding countries of the European Union.
In the words of Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State, "the world is in chaos." Between the perverse effects of financial globalization and the perverse effects of economic nationalism, the world is advancing in sight navigation mode.
The “providential men” are back. People trade freedom for security. In the words of the philosopher Zigmunt Bauman, we are in an “interregnum”, that is, in the transition from solid to liquid modernity. Let's prepare for the impact, 2017 will be a year of great turmoil.
II. Europe in the face of a wave of radical populism
In 2017, the Treaty of Rome that created the European Economic Community (EEC) turns 60 years old. In the same year that, for the first time, a member state formally decides to leave the European Union, and soon a member state the size of the United Kingdom.
In the same year that the European Union “fights for survival” in legislative and presidential elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, against a wave of radicalism, populism, authoritarianism and xenophobia.
Not to mention Italy and Spain, with governments in a very unstable political situation, to which, in the case of Italy, is added a banking system in a situation of near bankruptcy.
In early spring, according to the British Prime Minister, the negotiation process regarding Brexit will begin. We still don't know which negotiation approach will be preferred.
In any case, a tougher approach to the negotiations by the European Union will aim to prevent a precedent, which is to prevent other member states from feeling encouraged to leave, following the British example.
On the contrary, a softer approach may encourage some countries to request the opening of renegotiation processes for some chapters of their accession. There would be no shortage of candidates in eastern European countries.
In any case, the chosen approaches seem very ungrateful for the parties in the traditional European political centre.
If the European Union hardens its position, this option may favor the nationalist positions of the more radical parties, who are waiting for “a loophole” to renegotiate their membership.
If the European Union softens its position, the more radical parties will criticize the Union, for limiting itself to survive at all costs and with that take advantage of it to accumulate capital of complaint and gain the cause.
This coincidence or convergence between a difficult political process such as Brexit, the possible occurrence of new terrorist attacks, the arrival of new refugee flows (the problematic relationship with Turkey) and the successive elections until the autumn of 2017, puts the European Union and its institutions on the verge of a nervous breakdown and all this in an economic environment of low growth, which does not favor, for example, the recovery and consolidation of the European banking sector and European social cohesion.
The impotence of the European institutions to convey a message of political confidence, assertiveness and hope, at the precise moment when everything seems to converge to implode the European edifice, is quite shocking.
By the way, it is good not to forget who makes the decisions in the European Union and not to wash your hands like Pilate: it is the member states in the Council of Ministers and in the European Council who deliberate politically, sometimes unanimously and sometimes by majority. It is cheating, therefore, to play a double game, that is, when everything goes wrong, the responsibility is assigned to the European Union and its institutions, when everything goes well, the merits belong to the member states. That's not worth it. It is also this attitude of duplicity that has contributed to confuse European citizens.
2017 is the year when “nothing can fail when everything can fail”. This is the challenge facing European leaders and member states, in particular the six founding countries, those who in 1957, in Rome, began this great adventure of peace and prosperity.
We sincerely hope that the 25th of March 2017 will be the day of rebirth and light and not the day that “it all started again”.
The special summit planned for Rome has a truly impressive agenda: the review of foreign policy towards the Greater Middle East and North Africa, the control of the external border and the concept of internal security in the face of the flow of immigrants and refugees, regulation the resulting Schengen Area, the regulation of globalization in the face of major international trade treaties, the Brexit negotiations and the nature of the negotiating mandate, the growth and employment policy for Europe and, in this context, the single energy market and of the digital.
Is all this possible without a review of the European treaties? We will follow the next developments.
III. Peninsular Relations and Happy Cohabitation
Everything we have said at the world level and at the European level will have very important consequences for the peninsular area and the nature of the relations between the two Iberian countries.
After the intervention of the Troika in Portugal and the financial consolidation plan for the banking sector in Spain, the two economies have shown different behaviors.
In the last two years, the Spanish economy grew more than twice that of the Portuguese economy, and, what is more relevant, this growth took place in a political-partisan environment of great internal instability in Spain.
As Spain is our biggest trading partner and a natural market for our companies, it is imperative to maintain the happy cohabitation between the two peninsular countries at all costs, in addition to the immense problems that the European Union could face in 2017 and the following years .
This cohabitation may be affected, inter alia, by the following events:
– Brexit negotiations may introduce some discrimination into peninsular relations; Portugal, in particular, may be tempted to take advantage of this discrimination; the two countries must protect their relations, as far as possible, from this eventuality;
– Regionalist separatism in the United Kingdom and Spain can jeopardize traditional peninsular relations; the two countries must be able to anticipate the risks of this eventuality;
– The radicalization of domestic party-political systems and the alteration of their balance of forces can jeopardize the good relations existing at the institutional level; the two countries must be able to anticipate and prevent this eventuality;
– The completion of the Iberian electricity market and the launch of the digital single market must be considered and seized as two excellent opportunities to deepen peninsular integration; the “macroregion of the Iberian Peninsula” can be used as a pilot region for this purpose and form a united front in this matter;
– The projection of the peninsular space for Latin America and for Portuguese-speaking countries should be an opportunity to rehearse new business cooperation and to make the two Iberian economies grow;
– The border between the two peninsular countries is covered with enormous symbolism; in the words of the Portuguese prime minister, the border is the new central place in the Iberian relationship and the cohesion policy for the border regions will put to the test and reveal the real political commitment that the two governments have in this matter.
Final grade
As we said, in March 2017, a special summit on the future of the European Union takes place in Rome, on the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome that created the EEC. It would also be an excellent opportunity for the two Iberian countries to present themselves with common purposes and joint proposals, aiming at the political, social and economic deepening of the European Union. And why not from the very example of a “peninsular union”?
2017 will be a year of enormous political turmoil at the global and European level. The Atlantic will probably not be a very peaceful ocean.
Let us know how to protect peninsular relations from this turmoil. Relations within the peninsular framework must be cultivated with enormous common sense so that we can have a small island of peace and development in southwestern Europe.
Euroregions and Eurocities, for the good neighborly relations they establish, will always be a good instrument and an excellent pretext. So let's take advantage of it.
Author António Covas is a full professor at the University of Algarve and a PhD in European Affairs from the Free University of Brussels
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