Warming limit was exceeded for the first time in 12 consecutive months

European Earth observation program Copernicus confirmed today

The world exceeded the warming limit of 12ºC compared to the pre-industrial era for the first time for 1,5 consecutive months, the European Copernicus Earth observation program confirmed today.

According to the data, from February 2023 to January 2024 the average air temperature at the planet's surface was 1,52ºC above that of the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

On January 9, the Copernicus climate change monitoring service had already estimated that the global average temperature could exceed 1,5ºC that of the pre-industrial era over a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024.

The fact that the average air temperature in the world has exceeded the warming limit does not mean that the goal established in the 2015 Paris Agreement – ​​to limit the increase in the global average temperature to 1,5ºC in relation to the pre-industrial level – has left unfulfilled.

In fact, it will be necessary for the 1,5ºC limit to be exceeded in a stable manner for several decades for the Paris climate agreement to effectively be a failure.

According to Copernicus, January 2024 was the hottest month worldwide, recording an average air temperature of 13,14ºC. It was also the eighth consecutive month in which the monthly heat record was broken.

The average ocean surface temperature reached 20,97ºC in January, the second highest value after August 2023.

In the middle of last month, the World Meteorological Organization warned that the year 2024 could break the heat record set in 2023 due to the El Niño phenomenon – anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, predominantly in its equatorial belt, affecting the global climate and the general circulation of the atmosphere.

Scientists from the North American Oceanic and Atmospheric Observing Agency (NOAA) estimated that there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023.

For the international nature conservation organization WWF, the global warming limit of 1,5ºC will be surpassed in a lasting way in the 2030s if there is not “an immediate and profound reduction in emissions” of polluting gases “in all sectors and regions ».