On the 9th and 10th of July, the 8th National Congress of Economists took place in Lisbon. In this regard, the Order of Economists asked me to write a short text on the role of the economist in the horizon 2030. This is the text that I leave here for readers of Sul Informação.
The “industrialist and corporate” period of the profession is practically over. What we do not yet know is the socio-professional composition and corporate boundaries of the next period, which, by the way, is already there.
Let's see, then, the contextualization of the problem and its main manifestations, in a context where technological and digital transformation pushes us towards a more complex and articulated organizational approach and not just the conventional technical-financial organization we know.
Using a distinction familiar to economists, we move from a simple economic chain to a true value chain. Here are some of the most pertinent aspects of this "corporate transformation":
– The dematerialization of many activities that “belonged to the profession”, especially in the more conventional areas of accounting, finance and administration;
– The structural evolution of the labor market itself, towards a less compartmentalized and segmented work and more teamwork, if we wish, towards more collaborative work;
– The degree of internationalization and globalization of economic activities in Portugal or the country as a hub of activities and professions, which will greatly influence the development of the profession;
– The role of the State-administration and its institutions, but also the dimension of the State-regulator and the dimension of the State's business sector have a decisive importance in the perimeter of the profession;
– The way in which “Portuguese capitalism” will evolve and, in particular, its participation in the main value chains, will determine the affiliation of the profession to a particular business geography;
– The way in which labor law, union policy, collective bargaining, competition law and the activity of regulators will evolve will determine or inspire a certain labor economy;
– How the profession knows how to create platforms for collaborative interaction with the state-administration, local administration, business associations and higher education institutions;
– The way in which the profession reflects on its own condition, not allowing itself to be confined corporately and interacting with other professions that are close to it;
– How the profession “professionalises” external relations, not only of its own corporate organization, but also of chambers of commerce, embassies, business organizations and research and development centers;
– Finally, the way in which the profession gets involved with the problem of digital illiteracy and its impact on organizations and, in particular, the creation of “digital schools” of the XNUMXst century, in the image and similarity of XNUMXth century industrial schools.
In all these “modes” we will be structuring and shaping a particular way of being an economist in the XNUMXst century. Indeed, the "perimeter of the profession" and the role of the economist, in the coming times, will be constantly changing and, therefore, also what can be defined as the deontological conditions of the profession, that is, the spirit, the missions, the status of the profession.
Let's look at some emerging areas where the role of the economist can be highly valued as long as they are integrated into teams with a strong innovative and collaborative spirit:
– The large cross-sectional area of the digital economy and data analysis: this is an economy much closer to mathematics and statistics, network science and algorithms and, most likely, in small teams linked to new risk assessment methodologies. the economy of big data will recommend to us a certain type of customer and user that, for example, the financial, banking and insurance system will take in good and due consideration; mathematical economists will certainly have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The area of regulation economics: the activity of general and sector regulators will be an increasingly demanding task and digital devices will be one of their main instruments; markets will be under constant observation and extra-territoriality problems will be a permanent challenge; regulation economists will have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The area of economics of biodiversity and ecosystems: the ecological economics, biodiversity, ecosystems and natural resources and, in general, the ecosystem services they provide need programming, planning and evaluation that the economist can offer as part of multidisciplinary teams; economists of ecology, environment and natural resources will have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The new business economy, closely linked to the programming and planning offices of the sectorial associations that, on behalf of their members, lead the technological and digital transformation and carry out the benchmarking of this transformation, as well as the pertinent analysis of the new value chains and how they share the added value created by this transformation. Strategic and digital marketing economists will have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The large emerging area of the collaborative economy and the 4th sector: it is a sector in a “disordered state”, still diffuse, but which will quickly converge to an interface area managed by collaborative platforms of multiple formats where we will find urban and peri-urban agriculture, short commercialization circuits, the social economy and solidarity, the economy of gifts and voluntary work, the economy of cooperation services and development aid, the management of spaces for coworking and the “tiers-lieux”; collaborative economists will be called into the labor market to manage these new collaborative commons sharing platforms;
– The large area of economics of development cooperation in close liaison with international organisations, NGOs, embassies, chambers of commerce and business organizations in countries receiving aid; development aid and cooperation economists will have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The large area of the economy of localities and network territories: once again, we will see the launch of collaborative platforms, now within the framework of the great movement of smartification from the territories: we are talking about smart cities, networks of villages, Euro-cities and Euro-regions, up to the European groupings of territorial cooperation (EGTC) provided for in the framework of the European Union; smart grid and territorial marketing economists will have an excellent job opportunity here;
– The great area of the economics of innovation and development, still very much on the ride of digital transformation, it needs to assert itself in the starting up movement and help these companies to move up the value chain of their activities, especially in the areas of tourist services, artistic animation, cultural and sporting events; innovation, recreation and leisure economists have an opportunity here to show their creative imagination, creating and organizing a new offer of services and content for tourism in particular;
– The large area of public administration economics: this sector will undergo major transformations in the near future, as a result, above all, of the collaborative platforms and respective applications that will convert the former municipality into a service center or a citizen's shop; we will no longer have public services and will have “services to the public” administered in co-production with users; as a result of these changes we will see a profound change in the structures of front office e back office regional and local administrations and this co-production of services can be an excellent opportunity for the profession.
Final grade:
I sincerely hope that the economy of the future will not be reduced to a science of measuring instruments in the context of algorithmic governance. Since economics is a social science, I hope that values, principles, norms and, by the way, good manners will continue to determine the role of the economist. If so, as I hope, we will have much more collaborative work environments, more interdisciplinary teams and a much more interdependent labor market.
Most likely, due to the force of circumstances and the imminence of great risks, we will rediscover the energy of the commons and the blessing of nature's services. To the benefit of a new role for the economist.
Author António Covas is a full professor at the University of Algarve and a PhD in European Affairs from the Free University of Brussels
The Chronicles of the Sudoeste Peninsular, by António Covas, enter into a vacation period and will return in the second half of September.
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