At the last Iberian summit, held in Vila Real on 29 and 30 May, the topic on the agenda was Portuguese-Spanish cross-border cooperation. In this context, an international seminar took place in which I participated. Here I leave some thoughts on the next programming period 2020-2026.
On the European and national political agenda, it may seem paradoxical, in the current situation, to speak of the Europe of the Regions and the regionalist doctrine of the European Union. The reference published opinion is dominated by the geopolitics of the big countries, the macroeconomics of the Eurozone and the microeconomics of the European single market.
The mesopolitics and mesoeconomy of Euroregions, metropolitan areas, city networks and, in general, European groupings of territorial cooperation (EGTC) are observed with some contempt from the capitals and considered as endogenous variables of macroeconomic and financial decision in Brussels, Frankfurt and the capitals.
Furthermore, within the framework of the adjustment policies in force, regional policies end up functioning as instruments for managing aggregate demand and, therefore, subject to stop go these policies and their “discontinuation” in the transition between Community support frameworks and multi-annual programming periods.
And yet…
Between the European macro-region of the Iberian Peninsula (55 million inhabitants) and, for example, the Eurocity of Guadiana (55 inhabitants) there is room for more well-distributed growth and considerable progress towards more well-being and development, which includes , obviously, cross-border cooperation.
In this context, let us look very briefly at what can be brought forward to the next multi-annual programming period 2020-2026.
I. The European contingency of the near future
Here are some factors that will be present in European chess in the near future, we just don't know in what dose and what degree of likelihood:
– A European geopolitics that is very sensitive at the international level and that can consume large resources from the Community budget;
– A very problematic Brexit negotiation with a significant impact on the structure and volume of budgetary resources;
– The expectation of growth for the European economy as a whole above 2% in real terms and 4% in nominal terms;
– A Franco-German understanding in favor of relaunching the European project and increasing budgetary resources;
– A 2020-2026 multiannual budget that, in nominal terms, is not less than the current multiannual programming budget.
None of the above factors are assured. As a result, we may have a more or less benign European contingency, but always with a relevant impact on the next negotiation of the budget envelope for the period 2020-2026.
II. The big unknown in terms of territorial cohesion policy
Given the aforementioned European contingency, the budget equation for the next programming period can be put in these terms:
– 2020-2026 will be a period of adjustment to a budget level lower than the current one, due to the heavy financial constraint that weighs on the European Union after the departure of the United Kingdom, that is, a period of budgetary downgrading;
– 2020-2026 will be a period of transition towards a new doctrine in financial matters, more federal and with greater budgetary equalization, that is, a period of budgetary upgrading;
– 2020-2026 will be a period of budgetary accommodation that deserves the consensus of Member States that decide to maintain the current flow of resources, that is, a period of budgetary status quo.
III. Intervention plans for cross-border cooperation
Therefore, intervention in the field of cross-border cooperation can be analyzed in two planes:
In the face of a favorable European contingency:
– The macro-politics of the European region of the Iberian Peninsula: large investments related to trans-European networks can be considered.
– The mesopolitics of the bilateral relationship: the Iberian summits and the action programs defined there set the pace for cross-border cooperation,
– The micro-politics of Eurocities and proximity cooperation: local and regional players build their portfolios from projects to programs in force.
In the face of a less favorable European contingency:
– The macro-politics of the Iberian peninsula region: major projects are postponed or symbolic choices are made,
– Bilateral mesopolitics: summits become an inconsequential ritual and completely dependent on macroeconomic management,
– Local micropolitics: cooperation becomes minimalist and conservative.
IV. A new doctrine for the 2020-2026 cohesion policy
Regardless of the European contingency and the rigors of macroeconomic management, there are signs that a new “regionalist doctrine” may already be underway. Here are some elements for reflection between 2017 and 2020 (see, for example, some points from the Emmanuel Macron electoral program):
– The Digital Single Market and its implications for territorial cohesion policy;
– Social, fiscal and environmental harmonization and its implications for cohesion policy;
– The harmonization of State aid and its implications for territorial cohesion;
– The budget for the euro area and its regional equalization mechanism;
– The new engineering of cross-border cooperation in view of these changes;
– The creation of a specific Community law for cross-border cooperation;
– The role of regional technology platforms in the joint provision of utilities (the new generation of infrastructure for the digital single market).
Final grade
For future memory, and to serve as a warning to the navigation of the peninsular peoples, here is a mention of the "black swans" of the peninsular relationship, we hope that this alert can be a good omen to prevent so many other conflicts between neighbors:
– The consequences of an unresolved Almaraz dossier;
– Water transfers between hydrographic basins (in compliance with the Albufeira Convention);
– The jurisdiction of “common” territorial waters and the resources found there;
– The impacts of Brexit, due to discrimination in favor of Portugal (the placement of the headquarters of British companies in Portugal);
– The rebound effect of political regionalisms in diplomatic and consular relations (misunderstandings and misunderstandings);
– A new wave of refugees and the management of common borders (the western Maghreb);
– Climate change and the management of severe droughts and the resulting fires, in a context of lack of water and transfers between basins;
– The change of NATO territorial commands to the center of the Iberian Peninsula to the detriment of Portugal.
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