Wednesdays are the days of the week when there are fewer accidents with fatalities and, during working hours, less than half of the accidents occur than during non-working periods. These are some of the results of the MOPREVIS project – Modeling and Prediction of Road Accidents in the District of Setúbal, a partnership between the University of Évora (UÉ) and the GNR Territorial Command of Setúbal, presented on October 06th, at a seminar that took place in the auditorium of Colégio do Espírito Santo.
The results refer to the period of analysis between 2016 and 2019, in the area of jurisdiction of the GNR in the district of Setúbal, with the analyzed database consisting of 28103 accidents, of which 5436 registered minor injuries, 407 registered serious injuries, 163 registered fatalities that in this period of 4 years totaled 183.
Paulo Infante, Professor of Mathematics at UÉ who coordinates this project, states that the data collected indicate that the “occurrence of crashes in relation to collisions increases with the age of the vehicle” or that “an accident in which at least one of the interveners does not have accessories of seat belts, Child Restraint Systems, aka child car seats) have 2.5 times more chances/chance of having fatal victims”.
Through predictive models of statistics and artificial intelligence it will be possible to "set up an information system that identifies the places where accidents are most likely to occur" with the ultimate purpose of "building something that helps drivers, pedestrians and authorities in real time", he says Paulo Infante, who can also help define public policies. For now, the project is being carried out only in Setúbal, but the idea is to extend it to the entire country.
Among others, the study also points out that between 1 am and 2 am and between 6 am and 7 am there are 5 times more chances of an accident with fatalities than in the remaining hours of the day, as regards accidents with victims, the factors that enhance its severity (serious injuries or fatalities) are essentially geographical, temporal (0am to 8am and from 20pm to midnight, from Thursday to Monday, related to the road (IC/IP or EN, unpaved curb, no central separator), with the driver (majority of the drivers involved are male), age of vehicles (older), type of vehicle involved and nature of the accident (run over and run over when there is only light involved or collisions involving at least one motorcycle or a heavy vehicle.
The seminar was attended by several entities, such as the National Road Safety Authority, Infrastructures of Portugal, Institute of Mobility and Transport, Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere, Altice Labs and Automóvel Clube de Portugal FCT, among others. In addition to these Portuguese entities, it will also have a contribution from the Guardia Civil de España.
In March 2021, preliminary results "already allowed the identification of key variables associated not only with a greater number of accidents, but also with a greater severity of accidents in this territory", said Paulo Infante at the time, so in this more advanced phase of the project , the results presented are fundamental elements for a more complete evaluation in this field.
"If it is possible to contribute to saving even just a human life, this project will have already been a huge success and a relevant social contribution of the Academy through the application of its knowledge, effort and interaction with society and with the partners that make up the project” considered the project coordinator.
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