There is a 50 to 60% probability of El Niño occurring by the end of 2017

There is a 50-60% probability of an El Niño event occurring at the end of 2017, according to […]

There is a 50-60% probability of an El Niño event occurring at the end of 2017, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

O El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that affects the regional and global climate and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It has a great influence on weather patterns in several regions, explains the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA).

Following an event La niña Weak (in the second half of 2016, with neutral/cold conditions), sea surface temperatures and most atmospheric fields returned to neutral levels in January 2017, which continue to date, adds the IPMA.

However, sea surface temperatures in the far east of the Pacific Ocean increased 2 or more degrees Centigrade above average during February and March, causing very heavy rains off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.

This localized warming – known in Peru as a “coastal El Niño” – is different from the better known pattern of El Niño warming, but its impacts on the affected areas are very large.

Many of the climate models indicate that neutral conditions across the Pacific basin will persist until June 2017, with the subsequent development of an El Niño being more likely during the second half of the year than the continuation of neutral conditions.

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