The Meteorology Institute, continuing its policy of disseminating information geared towards the interests and needs of citizens and economic and social operators, begins publishing monthly forecasts for the continent's territory on its Portal.
These forecasts, updated weekly, are based on results compiled by the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting (ECMWF) and are probabilistic in nature, and as such should be taken by users.
Contrary to short- and medium-term forecasts (up to 15 days), which result from the processing of deterministic models that take as reference the initial conditions of the atmosphere and simulate the meteorological phenomena that will occur by the physical dynamics of the various elements present in the atmosphere- land-ocean, these forecasts are fundamentally in scenarios that seek to anticipate the average conditions of the atmosphere for the long term, that is, for a period of one month.
For this reason, although they have predictability limitations, these forecasts may provide their users with a characterization of some meteorological parameters capable of framing medium and long-term decisions, always giving them an interpretation that takes into account the degree of probability they present.
It may even happen in many situations that the long-term forecast cannot provide a statistically strong signal to be considered, so in these cases the information needs to be re-evaluated in future forecast updates.
The Meteorology Institute also explains that “because this product offers some reading and interpretation reservations to the undifferentiated universe of IM information users, it has only been disseminated to specialized clients who benefit from the interpretive support of the Institute's services”.
Thus, its widespread disclosure from now on requires the IM to inform that "it is not responsible for the use of long-term forecasts based on the results presented on the Portal and particularly for any damages that may result therefrom".
Lack of rain will continue until March 25: see the IM forecast here
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