In June, “El País” published a good table on imbalances in the Eurozone. I remind you that, of the 27 members of the EU, only 17 are in it. Besides the six founders of the then CEE, which ones gained the most from the Euro? Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece?
The “El País” table shows the deficit/public debt ratio in % of GDP for these countries, + Belgium and Italy in relation to the Eurozone average, which is no longer good. ZE will come to the end of 2011 with almost 88% of its annual GDP committed. Many welcomed the EU's decision to extend the deadline and raise the ceiling for Greece. And we hope that they will do the same for Portugal, which will need 180 MM€ and at least 12 years of maturity.
I'm skeptical. the greeks are fed up of their government and of the pressure that the EU has imposed on them, the humiliation and a sacrifice that they consider undeserving, because they were not the ones who profited from the easy loans previously directed there. And they are right, because the crisis was long predicted, I warned of it on 11/11/04 in Avezinha, an Algarve weekly. Why did those responsible for the Central Banks do nothing? Why were the rating agencies so kind to Greece and Portugal when they should have downgraded you in 2007?
In early April, in Vida Económica, I condemned them. In June came what I had been waiting for, but exaggerated and all at once. It is neither luxury nor rubbish! If it's not science why pay raves to agencies just to express an opinion? Opinion I write for free in several newspapers. If notation is a polished guess, then it's cheaper to listen to African magicians who advertise in Destak, Metro, etc.
There are countries in the EU outside the Euro that have excellent economic results. Why is it not advertised? THE Sweden had a GDP growth of 4,4% in 2010 and forecasts to reach 4,9 in 2011. Employment grew 0,3%, construction 13: lack of technicians and attendants for customer support telecenters. They have already come to Portugal to recruit young engineers.
A Republic Check out , like Sweden, has almost the same population as Portugal. There, growth this year has been and will remain at +2,2%, employment +2,1% and construction +4%.
Na Poland, more populous, GDP grows 4%, employment 3,6%, construction 11%, this explained by a high real demand, without speculation. In recent months there is an average of 1.050 new companies registered per week.
Here, unless substantial changes are made to the troika memorandum, I estimate at the end of 2012 or early 2013 an unemployment rate of 20%, which could reach 24 in the Algarve.
And a 4% decline in GDP, a huge increase in crime and the shadow economy. For the troika ignored marginal income, ie, the more a family has, after paying for food, transport and household income, at the lower level of income, the more it buys local or regional products. And at the highest level, imported products. Did you know that the biggest multipliers of each expense, the ones that create the most jobs, are in the food and recycling sectors?
It's Moody's or an African wizard who helps believeika winner? Or is it the financial policy free na believeika SuePolThat, who is not under the yoke of the Euro-boys?
YES, there is an alternative!
Jack Soifer is the author of the books «How to get out of the Crisis», «Profit in the Crisis» and «Transports»
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